Dane County Real Estate Market Update: What to Expect in 2026

As we kick off January 2026, we wanted to share a quick pulse check on the local housing market and what buyers and sellers in Dane County can expect in the year ahead.

As we kick off January 2026, we wanted to share a quick pulse check on the local housing market and what buyers and sellers in Dane County can expect in the year ahead.

Looking Back: A Solid 2025

The Dane County housing market wrapped up 2025 on strong footing. Home sales finished slightly higher than in 2024, and values continued their upward trend. The median sales price rose from $440,000 to $450,000, reinforcing what many homeowners already felt last year: demand remains steady and prices are holding firm.

Interest Rates & Buyer Opportunity

As we move into 2026, mortgage rates are currently hovering around 6% for a 30-year fixed loan. Our expectation is that rates will gradually tick down over the year. When that happens, more buyers are likely to re-enter the market—bringing increased competition.

What that means for buyers:
If you’re thinking about buying this year, there’s a real advantage to getting out ahead of falling rates and ahead of the spring rush. Historically, buyer activity begins to pick up after the Super Bowl, with a noticeable surge starting in March. Shopping earlier can mean fewer competing offers and more flexibility when negotiating.

What Sellers Should Know Heading into Spring

For sellers, all signs point to another active spring market. Buyer demand is expected to be strong once again, making preparation key.

Now is the ideal time to:

• Tackle small home projects and maintenance items
• Meet with an agent to discuss pricing, staging, and prep strategies
• Plan your timing to hit the market when buyer activity peaks

We often say that mid-February signals the unofficial kickoff to the buying season, but March through June is where sellers really benefit from sustained buyer demand.

A Smart Move-First Strategy

If you’re both buying and selling, one strategy to consider is buying first—when competition is lighter—and then listing your current home in the spring. This approach can help you:

• Find your next home with less pressure
• Take advantage of spring buyer competition when selling
• Maximize price, timing, and favorable terms

Looking Ahead

Overall, we expect 2026 to be just as active as recent years, especially during the core spring and early summer months. Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply keeping an eye on the market, having a plan—and good information—makes all the difference.

If you have questions about your specific situation or want to talk through timing, pricing, or next steps, feel free to reach out to Matt Winzenried Real Estate Partners. We’re always happy to help.

Here’s to a great 2026—happy new year!